Executive Summary

Kellanova delivered a resilient Q3 2025: net sales rose 0.9% to $3.26B, adjusted EPS grew 3% to $0.94; reported EPS declined to $0.88 on a much smaller mark‑to‑market benefit and a higher tax rate .
Versus S&P Global consensus, K beat on adjusted EPS ($0.94 vs $0.87*) and posted a slight revenue beat ($3.26B vs $3.251B*); EBITDA also beat ($584M* vs $544M*) as cost discipline and lower incentive compensation offset category softness .
AMEA remained the growth engine (net sales +14% YoY; noodles in Africa strong), while North America (-3% organic), Europe (-5% organic), and Latin America (-2% organic) reflected lingering category softness and customer/order disruptions .
No guidance due to the pending Mars acquisition; company reiterated the expected close “towards the end of 2025,” keeping M&A progress as the key stock catalyst .
Cash discipline continues: YTD free cash flow $320M despite pension headwinds; net debt $5.39B; board declared a $0.58 dividend for Q4 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

AMEA growth and mix resilience: AMEA net sales +14% YoY (+12% organic) on strong noodles in Africa and broad-based cereal; AMEA adjusted OP +4% YoY .
Cost discipline supported margins/earnings: North America adjusted OP +10% YoY despite -3% sales, aided by lower SG&A and reduced incentive comp .
Management execution in a weak backdrop: “We pivoted toward innovation, productivity, and emerging markets…helped us again deliver earnings above our expectations in the third quarter,” said CEO Steve Cahillane .

What Went Wrong

Reported EPS down on non-operational items: Q3 reported EPS fell to $0.88 (from $1.05) due to a sharp drop in mark-to-market benefit and higher effective tax rate (prior-year tax benefit lapped) .
Europe and Latin America softness: Europe organic net sales -5% and adjusted OP -22% on demand softness and order disruptions; LatAm organic net sales -2%, adjusted OP -37% on category declines and costs .
Gross margin pressure: Reported gross margin fell to 33.3% (from 36.4%) on higher costs and adverse mix; adjusted GM 33.4% (from 35.0%) .

Financial Results

Quarterly trend (Q1–Q3 2025)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Sales ($B)	$3.083	$3.203	$3.260
Reported EPS ($)	$0.87	$0.85	$0.88
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.90	$0.94	$0.94
Reported Gross Margin (%)	34.3%	34.0%	33.3%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	14.3%	14.9%	14.5%

Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024 (actuals)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	YoY
Net Sales ($B)	$3.233	$3.260	+0.9%
Reported EPS ($)	$1.05	$0.88	(16.2%)
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.91	$0.94	+3.3%
Reported Gross Margin (%)	36.4%	33.3%	(310 bps)
Adjusted Operating Profit ($M)	$441	$473	+7.3%

Results vs S&P Global consensus (Q3 2025)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Beat/Miss
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.94	$0.87*	Beat by ~$0.07
Revenue ($B)	$3.260	$3.251*	Beat by ~$0.01B
EBITDA ($M)	584*	544*	Beat by ~$40M

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Net Sales by Region ($M) | Region | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | YoY | |---|---:|---:|---:| | North America | 1,673 | 1,627 | (2.7%) | | Europe | 660 | 653 | (0.9%) | | Latin America | 311 | 308 | (0.8%) | | AMEA | 590 | 672 | +13.7% | | Total | 3,233 | 3,260 | +0.9% |
Adjusted Operating Profit by Region ($M) | Region | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | YoY | |---|---:|---:|---:| | North America | 312 | 342 | +9.6% | | Europe | 106 | 82 | (22.4%) | | Latin America | 31 | 20 | (37.2%) | | AMEA | 66 | 69 | +3.6% | | Corporate | (74) | (39) | n/m | | Total | 441 | 473 | +7.3% |

KPIs and Cash Flow

Adjusted effective tax rate: 21.4% (Q3 2025) vs 18.1% (Q3 2024) .
Free cash flow (YTD): $320M (OCF $788M – capex $468M) .
Net debt: $5.386B as of 9/27/25 .
Dividend: $0.58/share declared for Q4 2025; payable Dec 15, 2025 .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Consolidated outlook (revenue, EPS, margins)	FY/Q4 2025	Not provided (pending merger)	No forward-looking guidance	Maintained: no guidance
Dividend	Q4 2025	Not specified in this release	$0.58/share declared	Maintained regular dividend program

Note: Company is not providing guidance due to the pending Mars acquisition .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Category demand softness (developed markets)	Persistent softness in snacks/frozen; NA organic sales −4% in Q1 and Q2	Continued softness in snacks, cereal, frozen weighing on NA/Europe	Deteriorating/Prolonged
AMEA noodles growth	Strong volume/price realization drove double-digit organic growth in AMEA in Q1/Q2	AMEA net sales +14% YoY; noodles in Africa cited as growth engine	Improving
Cost discipline/productivity	Execution and expense control offset cost/mix pressures; Q2 earnings above internal expectations	Lower SG&A and reduced incentive comp supported OP and EPS	Improving
FX/mark-to-market impacts	Negative FX translation and unfavorable mark-to-market vs prior year pressured reported results	Sharp decrease in mark-to-market benefit YoY; higher tax rate vs prior year	Deteriorating (reported)
Europe customer/order disruptions	Noted order disruptions and demand softness in Q2	Continued order disruptions; adjusted OP −22% YoY	Deteriorating
Mars acquisition process	Announced Aug 2024; no guidance while pending	Expected close towards end of 2025; no guidance	Stable

Management Commentary

CEO tone on resilience and execution: “Once again our organization demonstrated resilience and grit...our prioritized expenditure helped us again deliver earnings above our expectations in the third quarter.” – Steve Cahillane, Chairman & CEO .
Strategic focus amid softness: Pivoting to “innovation, productivity, and emerging markets expansion, notably noodles in Africa” while managing through “prolonged category-wide softness and higher costs” .
Transaction update: Company “continues to work toward closing the Mars transaction...expected to close towards the end of 2025” .

Q&A Highlights

We did not locate a Q3 2025 earnings call transcript in our document set or company site; therefore, no Q&A details are available from primary sources at this time (we searched for “earnings-call-transcript” and IR press materials and did not find a transcript) .

Estimates Context

Adjusted EPS: $0.94 vs $0.87* consensus; beat driven by expense discipline, reduced incentive compensation, and productivity offsetting demand softness and cost pressure .
Revenue: $3.260B vs $3.251B* consensus; AMEA strength and FX tailwinds outweighed developed-market softness .
EBITDA: $584M* vs $544M* consensus; upside consistent with operating profit outperformance and cost controls .
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution over demand: Despite weak categories, Kellanova delivered adjusted EPS growth and margin resilience via SG&A control and lower incentive comp; this underpins near-term earnings stability .
Growth concentrated in AMEA: Noodles in Africa remain a structural growth vector; monitoring sustainability of double-digit growth and FX risks is key .
Watch Europe/LatAm pressure: Europe’s order disruptions and LatAm category weakness compressed adjusted OP; recovery timing remains uncertain .
Non-operational noise masks core: Reported EPS was depressed by lower mark-to-market and higher taxes (lap of $41M prior-year domestic tax benefit), arguing for a focus on adjusted metrics .
Balance sheet/cash: YTD FCF $320M with higher pension contributions; net debt $5.39B—leverage manageable but limits incremental capital returns until transaction closes .
Catalyst path: The primary stock driver remains regulatory progress and closing of the Mars acquisition “towards the end of 2025”; absence of guidance keeps fundamentals in the background .
Near-term positioning: Expect continued category softness outside AMEA; cost control and mix should support adjusted margins near recent levels, but Europe/LatAm remain risks .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

Reported net sales growth: +0.9% YoY; organic net sales −0.5% YoY; adjusted OP +7.3% YoY .
Adjusted effective tax rate: 21.4% (Q3 2025) vs 18.1% (Q3 2024) .
Dividend continuity: $0.58/share declared for Q4 2025; 404th dividend since 1925 .

Citations:

Q3 2025 8‑K/Press release, including financial statements and reconciliations: .
Q2 2025 8‑K: .
Q1 2025 8‑K: .
Q3 2025 IR press release link and dividend release: .

Values retrieved from S&P Global: consensus and EBITDA items marked with *.

KELLANOVA (K)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary